![]() TTB assumes that people generate and search cues in the order of their validity and that people base their decision solely on the first cue that discriminates between the options. A cue discriminates when one option has a different value for that cue than the other options.Īlthough most decision models within the heuristics literature make assumptions concerning the role of cue validity in dynamic pre-decisions processes, the most explicit model based on cue validity is the Take-the-Best heuristic (TTB). Cue validity is typically defined as the proportion of times a cue correctly identifies the option higher on the criterion, given that it discriminates. However, most models of cue-based inferences within the heuristics literature rely on the concept of cue validity. There are a number of models of how people make these types of decisions in terms of which cues they use and how the cues may be combined. For example, a decision maker might try to determine which stock is more profitable based on attributes of the companies such as number of employees, location, and type of product. Cue based inferences are a type of decision in which a decision maker chooses the option they believe is higher on some criterion based on different attributes (cues) of the options. Most research within the area of adaptive decision heuristics and Multiple Cue Probability Learning (MCPL) have focused on cue-based inferences. A natural extension of these memory-based accounts is to explicate the role of memory in heuristics, specifically, how cues are generated and utilized in the service of inference. Memory-based accounts of decision-making can explain a number of the standard heuristics and biases: availability, representiveness, base-rate neglect, overconfidence, and hindsight bias. Judgement and decision-making behavior is often characterized in terms of the use of heuristics, which are typically presented either as deviations from rational norms or as ways to adapt to a decision environment. The results have implications for the development of computational models of heuristic decision-making. The findings suggest that cue use is influenced by memory retrieval mechanisms and that cue use is not solely determined by cue validity. At test, participants preferred cues that discriminated early in the learning phase-a kind of primacy effect. Specifically, we manipulated the serial positions in which the cues accurately discriminated while holding overall cue validity constant. Cue accessibility was manipulated by the pattern of accurate cue discriminations within experiment blocks of the learning phase of the experiments. In two studies, we test how memory accessibility affects cue use by manipulating both ecological cue validity and cue accessibility in a stock-forecasting task. An important theoretical question in decision making concerns the nature of cue-generation: What mechanism drives the generation of cues used to make inferences? Most models of decision making assume that the properties of cues, often cue validity, initiate a set of dynamic pre-decision processes.
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